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Data from referendum will draw a new map of Egypt

Mostafa Hussein, Blogging on the wrong side - Sun, 20/03/2011 - 12:29am

It doesn't matter the outcome of the referendum. What matters is the detailed data that will come out. Given that fraud seems to be limited, the data may be very valuable.

Egypt at night from space

I think we can safely assume that most people who voted Yes were more convinced with ideas that are quite separate from the ideas of the No camp.

It's now common knowledge that the majority of the people who said Yes were basically people who were convinced by the arguments of the Muslim Brotherhood, Salafists, remnants of the NDP, pro-stability and lets-just-get-the-country-back-to-normal-because-we-don't-really-know-anything mindset and for sure people who read the amendments and think they are good enough.

While the No people are mostly people who don't like the Muslim Brotherhood, or afraid of them, people who think that the amendments are not enough and aspire for a more radical change even if the cost a longer interim period. In short, a good percentage of people who were active as opposition on the ground since January 25 and on Facebook and Twitter.

I hope you got the idea. That these group are somehow sort of different to each other.

Assuming that most people did vote near to their homes. Which is another assumption but I doubt that there was a massive shuffle in the distribution of people across districts or perhaps governerates to let us say that this assumption is totally incorrect.

I think the detailed vote data, that will tell us the number of people who said Yes than No in each district, are incredibly important for presidential candidates and political parties. But let's focus on presidential candidates first.

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